Budget&Bricks

Fixed or tracker: how to actually decide

Guide · Published 25 August 2026 · Reviewed 25 August 2026 · By Vincent Catt

The short answer

This is not a forecasting question. Anyone who could reliably predict interest rates would not be writing about mortgages. Choosing on a hunch about where rates are heading is choosing on nothing.

It is a question about your budget. Work out what your payment would be if rates rose meaningfully, and look honestly at whether you could absorb it. That answer decides the matter more often than any rate comparison.

A fix buys certainty, not cheapness. It may cost more or less than a tracker over the same period. What it reliably delivers is knowing the number.

Check the early repayment charges before anything else. They decide whether you can leave, which matters more than a small difference in rate.

What the two things actually are

Worth being precise, because the terminology gets used loosely.

A fixed rate holds your interest rate at an agreed figure for an agreed period, commonly two, three or five years, sometimes longer. Whatever happens to the Bank of England base rate during that time, your rate does not move, so your payment does not either.

A tracker follows the Bank of England base rate plus a fixed margin. If the base rate moves, your rate moves with it, usually within a month or so, and your payment changes accordingly. The margin above base is what stays constant.

There is a third thing often mistaken for a tracker. A discounted variable rate is set at a discount to the lender's own standard variable rate, which the lender controls. It can move even when the base rate has not. That is a materially different risk from a tracker, which follows a published rate the lender does not set.

Why the usual way of choosing is wrong

Most discussion of this decision reduces to a view about rates. Rates are going up, so fix. Rates are coming down, so track and enjoy the falls.

The trouble is that fixed rates are priced by lenders who are already making that judgement, using better information than either of us has. The expectation about future rates is baked into the price of the fix before it is offered to you. Choosing a tracker because you think rates will fall is not exploiting an insight; it is betting that you are more right than the people setting the price, using the same public information they have.

Sometimes you will be. Over any given deal period one option will turn out cheaper, and it is unknowable in advance which. That is not a defect in the analysis, it is the actual state of the world, and any guide that tells you otherwise is guessing with more confidence than it has earned.

So the useful question is a different one entirely.

The question that actually decides it

Not what will rates do, but what happens to me if they rise.

Take your mortgage and work out the monthly payment at your current rate. Then work it out again two percentage points higher, and again three points higher. Those are not predictions; they are a stress test, and the same exercise lenders do when assessing affordability.

Run the numbers Mortgage repayment calculator

Now sit with the higher figure and answer honestly. Would that payment mean cutting back, or would it mean not managing? Would you have to stop saving? Would it come out of an emergency fund that would then be gone? Is there another earner in the household, and would the same rise be survivable on one income?

If a substantial rise would cause genuine difficulty, fix, and probably fix for longer. The certainty is worth paying for, and the fact that a tracker might have been cheaper is not much consolation if the alternative outcome was unaffordable.

If the rise would be unwelcome but absorbable, you have a real choice, and it becomes a question of temperament as much as arithmetic.

The case for each

 Fixed rateTracker
What you get A payment that does not change for the length of the deal, whatever happens. A payment that moves with the base rate, so it can fall as well as rise.
Suits Tight budgets, single incomes, anyone who would find a rise genuinely difficult, anyone who simply prefers not to think about it. Households with room in the budget, people who could overpay if rates fell, anyone who may need to leave the deal early.
The catch You are tied in. Leaving early usually means an early repayment charge, and you do not benefit if rates fall. You carry the risk of rises, and budgeting is harder when the number moves.
Worth checking The length of the tie-in and what happens at the end of it. Whether it has early repayment charges, and whether there is a floor below which the rate stops falling.

Two features that decide more than the rate

People compare headline rates and skip the terms, which is backwards. These are the two things worth checking first on any deal.

Early repayment charges. Most fixed rates carry them, often a percentage of the balance that reduces over the deal period. They matter because they determine what a change of plan costs. If you might move, might repay a lump sum, or might want to switch if circumstances change, a charge running to thousands is a real constraint. Some trackers come without them, and where that is the case it is often the single strongest argument for one.

A floor or collar on a tracker. Some trackers stop following the base rate downwards below a stated level. If you are choosing a tracker partly for the chance of falls, a floor limits exactly the benefit you are choosing it for, so it is worth asking about directly rather than assuming.

Do not judge either on the rate alone. A product fee of a thousand pounds or more changes which deal is genuinely cheaper, and the effect is larger on smaller mortgages, where the fee is spread over less borrowing. The lowest advertised rate with a large fee frequently loses to a slightly higher rate with no fee. That comparison is arithmetic rather than opinion, and worth doing properly.
Fees included Compare two mortgage deals

How long to fix for

If you have decided to fix, the length is a separate decision and gets less thought than it deserves.

A shorter fix means revisiting the whole question sooner, with the effort and possible fees of arranging a new deal, and exposure to whatever rates exist at that point. It keeps you flexible, which matters if your circumstances might change.

A longer fix removes the question for longer and protects you from several years of whatever happens. The cost is being tied in, and early repayment charges over five years can be substantial if something changes.

The deciding question is what you expect from the next few years rather than what you expect from rates. Someone likely to move, whose income might change materially, who may inherit or receive a lump sum, or whose household situation is in flux, has good reason to keep the tie-in short. Someone settled, with stable income and no plans to move, has little to lose from a longer fix and gets more certainty for it.

One practical point on moving: many mortgages are portable, meaning the deal can move with you to a new property, which softens the tie-in. Portability is subject to the lender reassessing you and the new property at the time, so it is a useful feature rather than a guarantee. Ask about it rather than assuming it.

What happens at the end

Whichever you choose, the deal ends and you revert to the lender's standard variable rate, which is usually considerably more expensive. That reversion is automatic and nobody stops it happening.

The habit worth building is to diarise the end date the day the deal starts, and to start looking around three to six months before it. Offers can often be secured in advance, so preparing early costs nothing and protects you from drifting onto the reversion rate for months.

Coming up Guide: what happens when a fixed rate ends

A note on splitting

Some lenders will let you split a mortgage into two parts, with some fixed and some on a tracker. It sounds like a neat hedge and occasionally is, particularly on a large mortgage where a tracker portion without early repayment charges gives you somewhere to direct overpayments.

For most borrowers it adds complexity for a modest benefit. Two sub-accounts, two end dates and two sets of terms is more to keep track of, and the middle outcome it produces could usually be reached more simply. Worth asking about if your situation is genuinely unusual; not worth seeking out otherwise.

If you are still undecided

Then the honest answer is that the choice is finely balanced, which is itself informative. When two options are close on expected cost and differ mainly in certainty, most people are better served by the certain one, because the cost of being wrong is asymmetric. A tracker that turns out expensive can strain a household in a way that a fix which turns out slightly costly does not.

That is a general observation rather than advice about your situation. If the sums are large or your circumstances are complicated, a mortgage broker is worth talking to, and their view of which lenders will actually accept your case is often more valuable than their view on fixed versus tracker.

This guide is general information, not financial advice or a recommendation about any product. It deliberately contains no interest rate figures and no forecast, because both would date immediately and neither can be relied upon. Rates, product terms and early repayment charges vary between lenders and change constantly, so check the specific deal in front of you and speak to a mortgage broker or lender about your own circumstances.